Hobart (Tasmania) — Tasmania appears headed for another hung parliament as two key state polls show no clear majority for either major party ahead of the July 19 snap election.
Two recent polls—by YouGov and DemosAU—suggest the Liberal and Labor parties remain short of a majority in Tasmania’s 35-seat lower house, elected via the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.
The YouGov poll, conducted between June 12 and 24 with 1,287 respondents, shows:
- Labor at 34%
- Liberals at 31%
- Greens at 13%
- Independents at 18%
- Others at 4%
Despite trailing, Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff leads Labor’s Dean Winter as preferred premier by 43–36.
In contrast, the DemosAU poll, conducted June 19–26 from 4,289 voters, places the Liberals at 34% and Labor at 27.3%, with:
- Greens at 15.1%
- Independents at 19.3%
- Others at 4.7%
Election Follows No-Confidence Vote
This snap election, just 16 months after the March 2024 vote, was triggered by a successful no-confidence motion against Premier Rockliff in early June.
Tasmania’s Hare-Clark electoral system elects seven members from each of five electorates, totaling 35 MPs. The quota for election is 12.5%, but 6.2% is often enough to secure a seat.
Voters must rank at least seven candidates, with Robson rotation randomizing ballot order, preventing party-directed candidate rankings.
Election Landscape: Independents, Nationals, and Greens
At the last election:
- Liberals won 14 seats
- Labor 10
- Greens 5
- Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 3
- Independents 3
Since then, two JLN MPs were expelled and continued as independents. Now, JLN is not contesting, but the Nationals are running in Bass, Braddon, and Lyons, including two former JLN MPs.
The Nationals’ past efforts in Tasmania have failed. In 2014, they received just 0.8% statewide.
Public Priorities: Health, Housing, and Tax Fairness
The YouGov poll also revealed voter priorities:
- 52% want more health investment
- 45% support public housing construction
- 41% favour reducing state debt by taxing the wealthy
Only 18% support privatisation, while 47% oppose it outright. Just 22% back the Macquarie AFL stadium, compared to 33% against it.
Uncertain Outcome and Coalition Possibilities
If the YouGov poll proves accurate, Labor could form government with support from independents, avoiding reliance on the Greens.
However, if the DemosAU poll is closer to reality, the Liberals could win the most seats, but no party would reach the 18-seat majority. Labor would then need both the Greens and independents to govern.
From 2010 to 2014, Labor governed with the Greens, but the coalition was deeply unpopular, leading to a 2014 defeat. Since then, Labor has distanced itself from the Greens.
Federal Polls: Labor Leads Nationally
A Morgan federal poll, conducted June 23–29, shows federal Labor leads 57.5–42.5 over the Coalition by headline preferences.
Primary votes:
- Labor 36.5%
- Coalition 30.5%
- Greens 12%
- One Nation 8.5%
- Others 12.5%
Using 2025 preference flows, the adjusted two-party result is Labor 56.5–43.5.
Tasmania Parliament- Parliament of Tasmania
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